Best Picture
The Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Finding Neverland
Ray
Sideways

Aah, the year of the biopic. I saw The Aviator and was unimpressed. I thought it was overly long and that DiCaprio's performance was not that convincing. Finding Neverland should have been a lot better than it was. I haven't seen the boring-looking boxing movie, but I will. I always like to see all the main contenders before Oscar night. I doubt I'll go see Ray, though. I already know that Jamie Foxx was the best thing in it.

Sideways is the best of all of these nominees, but it still isn't as good as Eternal Sunshine for the Spotless Mind, which was my favorite movie of the year, and inventive and brilliant in a way that none of these movies is. I also have a sneaking suspicion that Kinsey was better than some of these movies, but I haven't seen that yet either. My personal five best pictures of the year would also include Closer and Before Sunset. And Bad Education which isn't in the foreign fim category either, so what happened to it?

Should Win: Sideways
Will Win: My money is on Million Dollar Baby, which has a surprising amount of momentum, as evidenced by the Best Actor thing.

Best Actress
Hilary Swank
Imelda Staunton
Kate Winslet
Annette Bening
Catalina Sandino Moreno

I haven't seen most of these performances. Annette Bening's speech at the Golden Globes makes me root against her. Catalina Sandino Moreno was good, but the nomination is her reward and she has no chance. Imelda Staunton gave, I have heard, a great performance in a so-so movie. Hilary Swank annoys me. I would have loved to see Julie Delpy nominated, but that was a long shot.

Should Win: My favorite actress is nominated for my favorite movie of the year, you think I'm going to say anyone else? Kate Winslet.
Will Win: Probably Hilary Swank, ugh. But it's toss-up. Bening could take it. And Winslet has a chance.

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood
Jamie Foxx
Don Cheadle
Johnny Depp
Leonardo DiCaprio

Paul Giamatti and Jim Carrey deserve to be here, whereas Johnny Depp and Leonardo DiCaprio do not. I like both of those actors very much, but they have both been better in other things. (Such as Catch Me If You Can and anything else that Johnny Depp has ever done.) Jim Carrey gave a really subtle, underrated performance in Eternal Sunshine and I have been hoping to see him get his due ever since The Truman Show. Paul Giamatti is wonderful in general and was great in Sideways.

I love Don Cheadle and Jamie Foxx and am happy to see them nominated. I have no comment on Clint Eastwood, although this is a strong sign that the Academy voters really, really liked Million Dollar Baby. I think the obvious winner--and the most predictable award of the night-- is Jamie Foxx. I hear he deserves it.

Should Win: Jamie Foxx
Will Win: Jamie Foxx

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Alda
Clive Owen
Jamie Foxx
Thomas Haden Church
Morgan Freeman

Morgan Freeman is an amazing actor and he has a good chance of winning; in the right category for the right movie at the right time. I think the dark horse is Clive Owen, who did a great job in Closer, but the operative word is "dark." The character and performance are probably too dark for the academy. Sideways has lost its momentum, and Thomas Haden Church is probably just happy to have a career again. Alan Alda? He was fine, but I don't think so. Jamie Foxx? Would be very fun to see him win, but I bet he won't.

Should Win: Morgan Freeman is a world-class talent. Give him an Oscar already.
Will Win: Morgan Freeman

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett
Virginia Madsen
Laura Linney
Sophie Okonedo
Natalie Portman

People say that Cate Blanchett's performance is too gimmicky, but I think she was fantastic in The Aviator. I loved Sideways but I actually don't see anything so great about Virginia Madsen's performance. Laura Linney irritates me, but I respect her talent; I think Kinsey has no support and she'll lose. I hear Sophie Okonedo is great. Natalie Portman was excellent in Closer. I wish Regina King were nominated for Ray, solely because I adore her.

Should Win: Of the performances I've seen, Cate Blanchett
Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake

This is a tough one to call. Obviously it's between Scorcese and Eastwood. I think Million Dollar Baby is going to pick up awards for Swank and Freeman, and I think The Aviator is going to win here and in the Supporting Actress category. Scorcese is a great director, even if The Aviator wasn't quite as good as it could have been. It's got 11 nominations and I think it will take this one.

As for who I think "should" win, I don't even know. I haven't seen three of these movies; I didn't like The Aviator very much, and I thought it was the writing and acting, not the directing, that made Sideways what it is.

Should Win: None of the above. Maybe Quentin Tarantino for Kill Bill Vol. 2, if the Oscars were taking place in my head
Will Win: Martin Scorcese

Best Animated Film
The Incredibles
Shark Tale
Shrek 2

Wow, poor creepy The Polar Express is shut out, eh? I think The Incredibles will win, but I liked Shrek 2 better. And I say that even though I hated the original Shrek. I wouldn't say that Shrek 2 "should" win, it is obviously derivative and inside-jokey and less of an artistic achievement. But I had a better time seeing it.

Should Win: The Incredibles
Will Win: The Incredibles

Adapted Screenplay
Before Sunset
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries
Sideways

Okay, I really do think Before Sunset stands a chance here. It has a brilliant, collaborative screenplay, and the Academy loves to give actors awards for writing. Plus they totally deserve it. Unless people are still pissed off at Ethan Hawke on Uma Thurman's behalf.

Sideways the book was basically already a screenplay, so it's not much of an adaptation. But I think this is a category where people might be willing to give it some props. Finding Neverland was not that great. I haven't seen The Motorcycle Diaries. Million Dollar Baby could win this category if there's anything approaching a sweep. But I think enough people will want to reward Sideways that the votes could be split, and Before Sunset might sneak in for a surprise win.

Should Win: Before Sunset
Will Win: Before Sunset could do it, but if I'm betting money, it's on Sideways

Original Screenplay
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Hotel Rwanda
The Incredibles
Vera Drake
The Aviator

This is a tough one to call. I would hope that Eternal Sunshine will get this one. I haven't seen Hotel Rwanda but Eternal Sunshine is far and away a more inventive and impressive screenplay than any of the others listed here.

Should Win: Obviously.
Will Win: I think Eternal Sunshine can beat The Aviator. Barely.

I usually read all the Oscar predictions before I decide on my own. But I haven't read any predictions this year yet , so I'm going to be curious to see how I do. And now I'm going to go see how my picks compare to Scalzi's.